₿Bitcoin retirement planner

Free tool

When could a bitcoin stack pay for your year? Enter your numbers and we find the year on the power-law trend, with a cautious and a hopeful case.

On the trend you could retire in
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Loading the model…

Your numbers

BTC
USD
USD
In today's money; inflation is added for you
yrs
%
%
The common 4% rule

Three scenarios

Cautious
—
You retire with the price at half the trend
On the trend
—
The price at fair value
Hopeful
—
The price at twice the trend

In every scenario you buy monthly at the trend price; the stack is valued on retirement day at the price shown.

Year by year

"Needed" = your yearly spending after inflation ÷ the withdrawal rate. The green row is the first year the stack covers it on the trend.

How it works

Each month you buy bitcoin at that month's power-law trend price, so the stack grows. Each year we compare its value with what you need to live off it: your yearly spending after inflation divided by the withdrawal rate. At 4%, that is 25 times your spending.

Important: the trend slows down over time, so the expected yearly growth shrinks every year. The price can stay under the trend for years, so look at the cautious column before any decision. This is a statistical model, not a promise or advice.

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